More polls show Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump in tight US Presidential race

Since Kamala Harris took the mantle from Biden, who decided to drop out due to mounting pressure, she has collected funds, given a moving speech, put in a shift during the second presidential debate and has seen her chances grow in numerous polls. 

In Short

• Statistician Nate Silver predicts a close race
• Kamala Harris continues to lead Donald Trump in key national polls
• Betting markets are favouring a Harris win

US elections are less than two months away, and candidates and voters are gearing up for what promises to be a thrilling show of a democracy with a lot on the line. Just mere months ago, the prospect of President Joe Biden going against the former president and the Republican presidential nominee, Donald Trump, seemed like a battle in vain.

Then things changed.

Since Kamala Harris took the mantle from Biden, who decided to drop out due to mounting pressure and a poor debate performance, she has raised funds, put in a shift in the second presidential debate and has seen her chances grow in numerous polls.

NATE SILVER’S PREDICTION

Renowned American statistician Nate Silver shared data on September 17 that showed Harris with a 48.9% chance of winning the poular vote, an almost 3% lead over Trump who had a 46% probability, USA Today reported. Interestingly, Silver’s predictions show that Harris has a 25% chance of winning the popular vote but losing the Electoral College vote – the system US follows to elect the president.

Silver’s prediction showed Trump had a 56.2% chance of winning the electoral college vote, while Harris trailed at 43.5%. The statistician’s predictions are in contrast with his former employers, polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight, which gave Harris a reassuring 61% chance of winning the electoral college vote.

USA TODAY/SUFFOLK UNIVERSITY POLL

In a poll conducted by USA Today news and Suffolk University that was released on September 16, Harris led Trump by 49% to 46% in Pennsylvania, a pivotal swing state in the election. The poll of 500 people in the state noted a 4.4% margin of error, meaning the race in the state is still too close to call.

The polls also showed Harris leading Trump nationally with 47.6% to 43.3%, a turnaround of eight points for the Democrats since Biden dropped out after the first debate, when Trump was leading the US president by four points.

Harris, the poll mentioned, has also managed to shore up young voters and people of colour: she has seen a 24-point swing amongst young voters, 18 points amongst Hispanics and a 17-point swing amongst Black voters, according to USA Today.

BETTING MARKETS

Apart from the numerous polls, betting markets are also swinging, with various betting companies favouring Harris to win the presidential election.

Betfair Exchange, a UK-based betting platform, and Polymarket, a crypto-trading and betting platform, have both predicted a Harris win with the vice president leading Trump by 5 and 2 points respectively.

Popular betting platform Betfair has witnessed significant changes in the odds; Trump, during the Republican National Convention in July, had comfortable odds up to 70% of winning the election. Those odds are now below 50%.