What Donald Trump 2.0 may bring India in defence, geostrategic synergy with United States

Analysts expect the Donald Trump administration to speed up high-tech military deals while strengthening New Delhi's hands in checking Chinese expansionism in the Indian Ocean Region

As Donald Trump returns to the Oval Office, global geopolitics is poised for a shake-up that could significantly benefit India as a key ally of the United States.

Trump’s previous tenure as US president brought a blend of unconventional diplomacy and a clear focus on ‘America First’, often upending traditional alliances and resetting the global power matrix. Now, as he takes over the reins again, the question in the power corridors and think-tank circles is how his policies will shape US-India relations, particularly given the growing tensions in Asia, an expansionist China and the turbulence in the world economy.

When it comes to strategic alliances, Trump has been vocal about strengthening ties with India. Observers point out that during his earlier term, the Indo-US strategic relationship had attained important milestones, including the signing of foundational defence agreements such as the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA), Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA) and Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA). These pacts bolstered intelligence sharing, logistics support and security cooperation between New Delhi and Washington.

“If Donald Trump follows through on his commitment to counter China’s growing influence, we can expect an even-tighter security alignment with India,” said a New Delhi-based geopolitical expert, adding that both nations share a vision for a “free and open Indo-Pacific”, which could fructify into India playing a more prominent role as a US ally.

According to another expert, Trump, in his last tenure, had taken a tough stance on China, calling out Beijing’s ambitions in the South China Sea and beyond, and sparking a US-China trade war.

This confrontational approach, if revived, could benefit India in the backdrop of the Chinese aggression along its Himalayan borders. Though New Delhi and Beijing have recently reworked their ties by adopting a disengagement agreement on the border friction points in eastern Ladakh, it’s still too early to interpret how relations between the two neighbours will evolve hereon.

Trump, in his last stint, had signed some big defence agreements with India and helped revive groupings like the Quad. Under his presidentship, the US might now deepen its engagement with this strategic alliance, which has India, Japan and Australia as the three other partners, to counterbalance China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific. For India, this means more support for its own efforts to counter China, though this could also invite a pushback from Beijing on multiple fronts.

In 2020-21, the US made an abrupt pullout from war-torn Afghanistan, which led to a resurgence of terrorism from the region, directly impacting India, particularly in Kashmir. To strengthen counterterrorism, the new US administration under Trump is expected to assist India.

At the same time, India’s neutral stance on the Russia-Ukraine war has created some tension between New Delhi and the West. However, Trump’s perceived good equation with Russian president Vladimir Putin could help India navigate its autonomy in diplomacy.

Besides strategic, expect more bilateral cooperation between Washington and New Delhi. The upward trend in Indo-US defence trade is likely to continue, driven by shared strategic interests and the need to counterbalance the growing Chinese military presence in Asia.

Defence trade is a critical pillar of the Indo-US relationship, and Trump has shown keen interest in selling US military equipment to India. Defence trade between India and the US shot up from $1 billion in 2008 to over $20 billion by 2023. This highlights India’s gradual shift from Russian dependency to diversifying its defence portfolio with US militaryware.

During the previous Trump administration, India had signed deals for Apache helicopters, Chinook heavy-lift helicopters, and MH-60 Romeo multi-role helicopters. If the Trump administration looks to strengthen this area further now, it may expedite advanced technology transfers and streamline defence exports to India, which could significantly enhance New Delhi’s defence capabilities.

However, this might come at the cost of increased pressure on India to choose sides, especially as the US expects its ally to curtail defence procurements from Russia. The Defense Technology and Trade Initiative, a collaborative effort between the US and India, has also encouraged production and co-development of critical defence technologies.

Some observers feel Trump’s reelection brings an exciting new phase for India and Indian businesses aiming to expand their reach in the US. For India, the benefits could include advancements in border security, infrastructure projects and the opportunity to position itself as a global hub for expertise and innovation. On the other hand, the US stands to gain from India’s expertise in medicine, technology and finance, all of which should foster shared growth and economic strength.

“The Trump administration will open the doors to a stronger and more resilient partnership between the two nations, promising enhanced collaboration across diverse industries. We can expect a new era of global advancement, with both India and the US setting a progressive tone for international cooperation,” said Deepak Ohri, an Indian-origin entrepreneur based in the US.

Ohri added that a stronger bilateral relationship could lead to more trade and strategic investment, and mutual support for one another’s ambitions in areas like technology, infrastructure and security. He said that while visa policies such as H1B present some challenges, there is hope for reforms, potentially through the expansion of categories like EB1 and EB7, that could facilitate smoother pathways for talent exchange and collaboration.

What is significant is that both Prime Minister Narendra Modi and president-elect Trump enjoy a good rapport, with Trump showering praise on Modi in the past and Modi describing Trump as India’s ‘friend’.

India has several pending defence deals with the US, spanning a range of high-tech military equipment and collaborations aimed at modernising the armed forces and strengthening defence ties. With Trump returning to power, New Delhi could see these moving in the right direction.

India is looking to acquire 31 MQ-9B drones, also known as Predator B drones, from US manufacturer General Atomics to enhance it surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities, particularly in the Indian Ocean Region, which has seen increased Chinese activity. While the contract was signed last month, India would like to have the deliveries at the earliest. Notably, it was during Trump’s previous presidential tenure that the US administration had approved the sale of Predator drones to India, the first country outside the NATO to get such a sophisticated military platform.

Similarly, the agreement to coproduce F-414 jet engines for the indigenous Tejas Mark-2 aircraft will also require US attention. India would also like to see the deal going through to be able to address the depleting combat capabilities of the Indian Air Force. Similarly, India proposes to purchase the Integrated Air Defense Weapon System, a cutting-edge platform developed by Raytheon and Lockheed Martin. The US has approved the sale, but further negotiations are required to finalise the acquisition and deployment. Also on the cards is the follow-on orders for six AH-64 Apache helicopters for the Indian Army.

“These pending deals reflect an expanding Indo-US defence partnership amid shared concerns about regional security, particularly in light of China’s growing military influence,” said an Indian official. Issues like cost-sharing, technology transfer and operational requirements are still being discussed before finalising the deals.

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