Tinubu, Atiku, Obi's Interest, 4 Other Key Political Facts About Edo Governorship Election

• The Edo next governorship election will be held on Saturday, September 21, and five political facts about the poll and the state have emerged
• The race is said to be between the candidates of the APC, PDP and the Labour Party, who are Monday Okpebholo, Asue Ighodalo, and Olumide Akpata
• One of the key political implications of the poll is its impact on the presidential ambitions of Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, and President Bola Tinubu's bid for a second term

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On Saturday, September 21, Nigerians residing in Edo state will head to the polls in large numbers to elect the next governor, in line with the schedule and guidelines set by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).

The governorship election is between the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in the state, the All Progressives Congress (APC) with federal might, and the Labour Party (LP), the third force.

With less than 24-hours to the election, Legit.ng examines some interesting insights you should know about the poll.

Edo is politically diverse

Edo, an oil-rich state, is one of the most politically diverse states in Nigeria. While the PDP remains the ruling party, the APC controls two of the three senatorial seats, with Adams Oshiomhole representing Edo North and Monday Okpebholo representing Edo Central. The Labour Party holds the Edo South seat, represented by Senator Bernards Neda Imasuen.

Meanwhile, the PDP holds just one of the nine House of Representatives seats in the state. However, it maintains control over the State House of Assembly.

Ighodalo, Okpebholo, Akpata have limited political experience

The Edo State governorship election features three leading candidates with limited political experience. Ighodalo and Akpata are both first-time contestants, while Okpebholo, who was elected senator last year, owes much of his success to party dynamics.

Their inexperience amplifies the influence of their backers. Additionally, contentious primaries may impact party unity, while post-primary cohesion within parties will affect electoral outcomes. This sets the stage for a unique and potentially unpredictable election.

Edo 2024: Zonal and ethnic dynamics

The governorship election in Edo this Saturday promises to be interesting. Beyond the influence of godfathers and special interest groups, the zonal dynamics within the state will significantly impact the election outcome.

Notably, Edo Central, one of the three senatorial zones, has been unfairly excluded from the governorship position since the beginning of the Fourth Republic.

Edo South has had 16 years of governance (Lucky Igbinedion, 1999-2007, and Obaseki, 2016-2024; Edo North had eight years (Oshiomhole, 2008-2016), and Edo Central had a brief, annulled stint (Professor Oserheinem Osunbor, May 29, 2007 - November 12, 2008).

There seems to be a solid elite consensus to address this imbalance in the current election cycle, as the PDP and APC candidates are from Edo Central.

Interestingly, Edo Central's last governor was Professor Ambrose Alli, who governed the larger Bendel State from 1979 to 1983 before it split into Delta and Edo states.

Ethnically, the Esans, predominant in Edo Central, are significant minorities in the state, similar to the Okuns in Kogi state and Idomas in Benue state.

Edo and the battle of godfathers

The upcoming Edo state governorship election will witness a proxy rematch between Governor Godwin Obaseki and former Governor Adams Oshiomhole. This will be their third electoral showdown since 2020, considering the fact that the candidates are politically inexperienced.

During the 2023 general election, Oshiomhole's APC secured two senatorial seats and six House of Representatives seats. In the house of Assembly, Obaseki's PDP won 15 seats, APC secured 8, and the Labour Party took one.

This Saturday represents Oshiomhole's final chance to assert his dominance over Obaseki. Conversely, the election offers the governor an opportunity to demonstrate his strength as a political force.

Oshiomoho controls the APC's state structure, remains influential in Edo North, and attracts federal support. Obaseki has state-level incumbency, and Edo South has a significant voting population. Both leaders have significant weaknesses that may impact their parties' candidates.

Tinubu, Atiku, Obi’s interest

The Edo State governorship election is more than just a symbolic win for the three presidential candidates in 2023—President Bola Tinubu of the APC, Atiku Abubakar of the PDP, and Peter Obi of the Labour Party. It serves as a crucial indicator of their electoral strength and an opportunity to harness momentum for future success.

For Obi and the Labour Party (LP), winning Edo state would validate their performance in 2023 and extend their governance beyond Abia State. It would also boost Obi's reputation and relevance.

On Saturday, the PDP and Atiku Abubakar face a must-win situation to maintain their foothold in Edo State. Losing would exacerbate their decline in the South-South and South East regions, where they have traditionally held strong. Retaining Edo would keep the PDP's governor tally at 13.

Meanwhile, the APC and Tinubu are aiming to regain control of Edo, which they lost in 2020. A victory would increase their governorship count to 21, nearing their 2015 peak of 22 states. For Tinubu, Edo holds personal significance, as it was a key location in his successful expansion of the Action Congress beyond the South West.

The governorship election, scheduled for September 21, 2024, will have far-reaching implications for Nigeria's political landscape. The outcome will influence the relative electoral strength of each party and impact their chances in future elections.

Proofreading by James, Ojo Adakole, journalist and copy editor at Legit.ng.