Israel Weighs Retaliation After Iranian Missile Attack

News Analysis

Israel Weighs Retaliation After Iranian Missile Attack

Security analysts and former officials said the damage Israel had inflicted on Hezbollah, an Iranian-backed militia, had stripped Tehran of much of its deterrence against a wider Israeli attack.

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By Aaron Boxerman

Reporting from Jerusalem

Israel has a freer hand to respond forcefully to Iran’s missile barrage on Tuesday than it did in April, security analysts and former officials say, when its retaliation for the previous Iranian attack was a largely symbolic strike against an air-defense installation in Iran.

In April, Israel was worried that issuing too intense of a response would prompt Iran to order its proxy militias — particularly Hezbollah in Lebanon — to retaliate extensively.

But after launching a bombing campaign that killed Hezbollah’s leader and other commanders last week, along with a ground invasion overnight Tuesday, Israel has weakened Hezbollah, stripping Iran of much of its deterrence against a wider Israeli attack, said Danny Citrinowicz, a retired Israeli intelligence officer who specialized in Iran.

“Israel has much more free rein in the Iranian context than in April, as there’s essentially no more threat that Hezbollah would join,” Mr. Citrinowicz said.

The Biden administration may urge Israel to curb its response. But with American elections fast approaching, U.S. officials were likely to have less influence than they did in April, Mr. Citrinowicz said, when they similarly pressed to avoid an attack that could escalate the conflict.

“This is an escalation whose end is difficult to foresee,” Mr. Citrinowicz said. “Israel’s action will almost certainly trigger another Iranian response. We appear to be at the start of forceful confrontation between us and the Iranians.”

But after Iran fired about 180 missiles in an attack that went on for roughly half an hour, Israel’s challenge was not whether to attack Iran, but how powerfully to respond, said Yaakov Amidror, a retired major general who served as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s national security adviser.

The only question, General Amidror said, was “how much can we harm them versus their capacity to harm us.” He added he believed that the damage Israel inflicted on Hezbollah had diminished the threat of Iran’s proxies.

Even an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities — long a source of fear for Israel, which worries about Tehran gaining a nuclear weapon — “should be considered,” General Amidror added.

Naftali Bennett, a former Israeli prime minister, wrote on social media that Israel was facing “the biggest opportunity in the past 50 years” to change the face of the region.

“We must act now to destroy its nuclear project, destroy their major energy facilities and critically hit this terrorist regime,” Mr. Bennett said of Iran. “The tentacles of that octopus are severely wounded — now’s the time to aim for the head,” he added.

Our Coverage of the Middle East Crisis

• Israel Invades Lebanon: The Israeli military began a ground invasion of southern Lebanon, targeting what it said was Hezbollah military infrastructure in villages close to the Israel-Lebanon border.
• Striking on Multiple Fronts: The escalation of violence between Israel and Iran-backed proxies across the Middle East threatened to bring the combatants closer to an all-out regional war.
• Iran Projects Caution: Leaders in Tehran suggested it would be the Lebanese militia that would strike back at Israel after the killing of Hassan Nasrallah, the longtime leader of Hezbollah, and bombings in Beirut.
• Biden-Netanyahu Disconnect: Israeli officials gave their American counterparts no advance warning of the strike that killed Nasrallah. But President Biden said the killing was “a measure of justice” for victims of Hezbollah terrorism.
• A Strike Years in the Making: After the 2006 war with Hezbollah, Israel invested heavily to intercept the group’s communications and track its commanders in a shadowy war that ultimately led to the killing of Nasrallah.