Israel Likely to Have Enough Weapons for Multiple Conflicts

by · NY Times

Israel Likely to Have Enough Weapons for Multiple Conflicts

Although Israel, like many countries, is highly secretive about its weapons stockpiles, experts believe it could outlast adversaries in offensives on at least two fronts simultaneously.

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Smoke rising over southern Lebanon after Israeli strikes on Monday.
Credit...Aziz Taher/Reuters

By Lara Jakes

Lara Jakes writes frequently about the weapons industry.

Over the last week alone, Israel launched more than 2,000 airstrikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon and continued its near-daily bombings against Hamas in the Gaza Strip. Its air defenses also fended off attacks, in one instance intercepting a ballistic missile headed for Tel Aviv.

And there are no signs of the onslaught slowing. “We’re not stopping, while simultaneously preparing plans for the next phases,” the Israeli military spokesman, Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari, said on Wednesday.

But how long can Israel keep it up?

Military and weapons experts say that is not clear. Israel, like many countries, is highly secretive about the weapons in its stockpile, and government spokespeople who vigorously safeguard that information did not respond to requests for comment.

Yet there are several reasons why experts believe Israel could outlast its adversaries in its two-front offensive, even while defending itself from approaching strikes. Israel’s defense industry churned out so many weapons last year that it was able to export some, even despite the war in Gaza beginning in October. The United States has sent Israel at least tens of thousands of missiles, bombs and artillery rounds in recent years.

And given the threats it has faced, Israel has almost certainly built up its stockpiles to sustain multiple conflicts at once — especially if Iran rallies its allied groups in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen to strike at the same time.

“It will not run out, because in the Middle East, you cannot run out of weapons,” said Yehoshua Kalisky, a military technology expert at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv. “The leaders know how to calculate the amount of weapons that are needed, and what they would have to have in the stockpile, because in this jungle you have to be strong.”

Here is what we know about Israel’s weapons arsenal.

The demands on air defenses

Israel says it has been targeted by more than 9,300 Hezbollah rockets since Oct. 8, 2023. Although those attacks killed 49 people, Mr. Kalisky estimated that most of those rockets — 75 percent — were intercepted by Iron Dome, Israel’s vaunted air defense system.

U.S. officials reportedly assessed this summer that Iron Dome batteries could be overwhelmed in a full-blown war with Hezbollah. Analysts have estimated Hezbollah has stockpiled between 100,000 and 200,000 rockets and missiles.

But one indicator of Israel’s air defense arsenal is the sheer number of interceptor missiles it was able to fire against Iranian missiles and drones in a single night last April, said Tom Karako, a missile defense expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

On April 14, Israel shot down most of about 330 incoming drones, ballistic missiles and cruise missiles with its Iron Dome and Arrow 3 defensive weapons. Some were also intercepted by the United States and other allies. That showed what he said was “an amazing success” of Israeli air defenses that were clearly well-equipped.

Still, “there’s not enough Iron Domes in the world to catch all of the rockets that Hezbollah has,” he said. “Missile defense buys you time, but you have to use that time well to end the threat by other means.”

A ‘surplus’ of weapons made in Israel

Last year, Israel’s defense industry produced enough weapons “to have a capacity surplus to meet its own needs, within the country itself,” said Pieter Wezeman, a senior researcher at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, which tracks arms transfers.

In fact, Israeli companies produced so many arms in 2023 that they were able to export a record high $13 billion in weapons to foreign militaries.

With that kind of surplus, “we must assume that Israel is confident that it has the kind of arsenals which it can use in case the conflict would escalate further,” Mr. Wezeman said.

Defense industry companies generally do not release production numbers, in part for competitive reasons. But Mr. Wezeman said Israel’s weapons manufacturers focus largely on producing ammunition, guided bombs and missiles.

Tens of thousands of American imports

The United States is Israel’s largest arms supplier, and the only country that has delivered missiles and bombs to Israel over the last 15 years, according to the Stockholm institute, SIPRI.

SIPRI estimates that the Pentagon and American arms companies have delivered at least 29,100 guided bombs, artillery rockets and various missiles to Israel since 2009. More than a third were delivered in the last two years alone, and the 15-year total almost certainly is a low estimate, Mr. Wezeman said, since comprehensive weapons sales are rarely publicized and Congress is only notified of the most expensive arms transfers.

In the weeks immediately following the Oct. 7 Hamas-led attack that started the war in Gaza, the United States sent planeloads of weapons to Israel, including about 3,000 bombs and tens of thousands of artillery shells. The United States has also delivered at least $3.5 billion in unspecified “essential wartime procurement,” Israel’s Defense Ministry said in a statement Thursday.

But since May, the Biden administration has stopped sending Israel 2,000-pound bombs for fear they would cause mass casualties of civilians. And Israel is still waiting for additional bombs, guidance kits and fuses for munitions that it has asked the United States to send over the last year, according to the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a Washington research institute.

Bradley Bowman, a weapons expert there, said those requests show that Israel is trying to build up its stockpile.

“These are things that Israel needs,” Mr. Bowman said. “If you look at the quantities of attacks going back and forth since Oct. 8, but especially in the last week or so, they are increasingly more frequent and more intense. So they’re clearly expending munitions.”

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