For weeks, the Ukrainian and South Korean governments have fueled reports that more than 12,000 North Koreans were training to fight alongside Russian soldiers.
Credit...Ahn Young-Joon/Associated Press

U.S. Says North Korean Troops Are in Russia to Aid Fight Against Ukraine

Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III called the situation “very, very serious,” though he said that what the soldiers were doing in Russia was “left to be seen.”

by · NY Times

Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III confirmed on Wednesday that North Korea had sent troops to Russia to join the fight against Ukraine, a major shift in Moscow’s effort to win the war. Mr. Austin called the North’s presence a “very, very serious” escalation that would have ramifications in both Europe and Asia.

“What exactly are they doing?” Mr. Austin told reporters at a military base in Italy after a trip to Ukraine. “Left to be seen.” He gave no details about the number of troops already there or the number expected to arrive.

Mr. Austin cast President Vladimir V. Putin’s need for North Korean mercenaries as a sign of desperation.

“This is an indication that he may be in even more trouble than most people realize,” he said. “He went tin-cupping early on to get additional weapons and materials from the D.P.R.K.,’’ he said, using the abbreviation for Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, “and then from Iran, and now he’s making a move to get more people.”

But he said intelligence analysts were still trying to discern whether the troops were moving toward Ukraine.

Ukrainian officials insist they are headed there, and Ukraine’s defense minister was quoted on Wednesday saying he expected to see North Korean troops in Kursk, the Russian territory that Ukraine has occupied, in the coming days.

Mr. Austin’s statement came as American intelligence officials said they were preparing to release a trove of intelligence, including satellite photographs, that show troop ships moving from North Korea to training areas in Vladivostok on Russia’s east coast and other Russian territory further to the north.

For two weeks, there have been reports of the movements, fueled by the Ukrainian and South Korean governments, that more than 12,000 North Koreans were training to fight alongside Russian soldiers.

American officials have said they estimate that 2,500 North Korean troops have been dispatched. But they made no estimate of how many more might follow, or even how well they might perform on territory that the North’s conscripts have never fought in, amid fellow fighters who speak a different language.

There was no immediate comment from the Kremlin. Russia has denied earlier reports on North Korea’s troop presence. But Moscow is straining to maintain its costly offensives in Ukraine without destabilizing Russian society. U.S. officials estimate that Russia is recruiting 25,000 to 30,000 new soldiers a month, just enough to replace the dead and the wounded. Some military analysts believe the Kremlin will have a hard time maintaining that pace without resorting to another round of unpopular mobilization.

To avoid the political cost of a draft, the Russian government has resorted to increasingly unorthodox recruitment tactics. Many Russian regions have sharply increased sign-up bonuses paid to volunteer soldiers and expanded recruitment from prisons and from poor nations such as Cuba and Nepal.

Nonetheless, both Russia and North Korea experts called the arrival of North Korean troops a watershed moment. Desperate not to stir up domestic resentments about the huge casualties Russia has taken — over 600,000 killed or wounded, American officials recently estimated — Mr. Putin is now reaching for mercenary forces, supplied by the same country that has sold him more than a million artillery rounds, many of them defective.

For Kim Jong-un, the North Korean leader, the war in Ukraine has been a pathway out of geopolitical isolation. For the first time in decades, the North has assets that a major power is willing to pay for.

His longer-term plan, experts say, may be to improve the reach of his intercontinental ballistic missiles. He is eager, American intelligence agencies believe, to make it clear that his arsenal of nuclear-tipped weapons is capable of hitting American cities.

“This is the real ‘no-limits partnership,” said Victor Cha, a North Korea expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies who was a member of President George W. Bush’s National Security Council. “We are in a whole different era if North Korean soldiers are dying for Putin. It will raise the ask when Kim makes demands, and Putin will give him what he wants.”

In comments to reporters on Monday, President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine sought to portray North Korea’s presence as an attempt by Mr. Putin to avoid an unpopular mobilization.

“I wouldn’t say they have run out of personnel,” the Ukrainian leader said of Russia. “However, the reluctance to mobilize their own people is certainly increasing, and there are formats for mobilizing North Korean troops. This is definitely happening.”

“This indicates that the consequences of this war are already impacting Russian society,” he added.

One of the central mysteries American and South Korean intelligence agencies are focused on is what Mr. Kim may be receiving in return for contributing troops.

So far, officials say, there is no clear quid pro quo in the transaction; the United States has not picked up intelligence suggesting that Russia agreed to pay for the mercenaries, or provide oil or much-needed military technology in return. But there have been reports of increased cooperation on missile technology, and in that arena, Mr. Kim has some very specific needs.

He has been trying to demonstrate that his intercontinental ballistic missiles have the range to reach the United States — a goal that North Korea has had since it seriously began work on its nuclear weapons program in the early 1980s.

As Mr. Kim’s missiles have grown more accurate, he has conducted flight tests that have flown in high arcs into space and landed in the Pacific. But he has not yet conducted a test across the Pacific, one that could also demonstrate that his warheads could survive the intense heat and vibration of re-entering the atmosphere — a challenge that plagued the American and Soviet missile programs in the 1950s.

“Kim may believe that going this far for Putin will mean that he can raise the ceiling on what he wants in return, possibly higher-end technology for ICBMs and nuclear subs,” said Mr. Cha. “Both are stated goals of the program.”

Mr. Putin, American intelligence officials suggest, may also have a reason to cooperate. With the Biden administration gradually allowing American-made missiles to be shot into Russian territory by Ukrainian forces, some senior officials believe, Mr. Putin has every incentive to help North Korea show that it could threaten American territory.

Another mystery is how China is reacting to the North’s new deals with Russia. U.S. intelligence has concluded that Chinese officials now want to assure that Russia wins in its conflict with Ukraine, demonstrating that the West, with all its firepower, cannot prevail far from its shores.

But North Korea has always been highly dependent on Beijing, and Mr. Kim’s move to take advantage of Russia’s need for ammunition and troops is presumed to be unwelcome in Beijing. China remains the North’s critical supplier of oil, and its major trading partner. And it has sometimes used that leverage to insist that Mr. Kim not create instability or conflict in Asia.

Now the provision of troops threatens all that. But so far, officials say, they have not picked up evidence that China is expressing its displeasure.

Kim Barker contributed reporting from Kyiv, Ukraine.

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