Is Netanyahu paving the way for all-out war with Hezbollah?

The Middle East is on the brink after a mass attack on Hezbollah saw thousands of its militants' pagers explode - just hours after Israel's prime minister vowed to step up military action against Lebanon.

While Israel has not confirmed that it was behind the pager blasts - which left some 2,800 Hezbollah members and civilians injured and nine dead in Lebanon and Syria - several security sources have blamed the IDF and Mossad spy agency for the attack. 

Hostile rhetoric on both sides was building even before the blasts amid ongoing cross-border fire between Lebanon and Israel over the past year, as Hezbollah continues to pummel Israel in a show of support to its allies Hamas in Gaza.

Meanwhile, reports have emerged that Benjamin Netanyahu is poised to sack his defence minister, Yoav Gallant, who is widely seen as the most vocal government minister pushing for a ceasefire agreement in Gaza to free Israeli hostages.

This means that the prospect of a ceasefire in Gaza appears evermore distant at the same time as tensions on Israel's northern border are spiking, with Netanyahu seemingly pushing ahead for broader escalation.

Over the weekend, Israel's premier called for a 'change in the balance of forces on our northern border,' amid the near-daily attacks by Hezbollah, while pledging to do 'whatever is necessary' to return evacuated residents to their homes. 

Israel has been ramping up preparations for a war against Hezbollah in Lebanon, taking on the Iran-backed militant group to improve security in its northern region. 

Netanyahu frames it as an existential war for Israel and has argued that now is not the time to show weakness, defying calls for restraint and compromise, including from within his war cabinet.

The PM's office has been putting out the message that while he is pushing for greater confrontation with Hezbollah, retired military general Gallant is against it, according to Israeli outlet Haaertz.

Michael Milshtein, a leading Palestinian studies scholar at Tel Aviv University, said that Gallant 'doesn't want a broad escalation', but that Netanyahu is 'considering' it.

In an expansion of Israel's official war goals on Tuesday, Netanyahu announced that his forces would now aim to halt Hezbollah's attacks in the north to allow tens of thousands of residents to return to their homes along the border. 

As news of the plans emerged, Amos Hochstein, a senior adviser to the Biden administration warned Netanyahu against initiating a wider war against Lebanon, sources told Axios.

On the same day, Gallant told the United States military envoy visiting the region that 'military action' is the 'only way left to ensure the return of Israel's northern communities.'

Hezbollah and Israeli forces have been clashing near-daily for more than 11 months, with the clashes killing hundreds in Lebanon and dozens in Israel, as well as displacing tens of thousands on both sides of the border. 

Hezbollah deputy chief Naim Qassem has insisted that his group has 'no intention of going to war', but warned that if Israel were to 'unleash' one, 'there will be large losses on both sides'.

He added that is Israel did expand its 'aggression', rather than enabling the roughly 100,000 displaced people to return home, it should 'prepare to deal with hundreds of thousands more displaced'.

Tensions have since mounted even further following Tuesday's pager blasts, with the militant group vowing to exact revenge and warning its arch-foe that it should 'await in response to the massacre'.

Fawaz Gerges, Professor of International Relations at LSE, described it as 'one of the greatest security breaches' to ever hit Hezbollah, who he said would now be plotting its revenge.

'I don't think we can expect any major retaliation in the next hours or days, Hezbollah will take its time, assess the implications.

'My take on it is that Hezbollah faces a huge strategic dilemma. Because while Hezbollah feels bound to retaliate, it does not really want to trigger all-out war.'

But, he said, Israel is more prepared to expand the conflict. 'This is the first shot in Israel's all-out war against Hezbollah,' he said.

'Israel has really been provoking Hezbollah, has been pushing Hezbollah, and this attack is really not just a psychological attack, this is a major, catastrophic security attack on Hezbollah.

He added that he doubted that Hezbollah would target any civilians in Israel, despite the rising rhetoric.

'The strategic overarching aim of Hezbollah is to avoid all-out war, because both Iran and Hezbollah believe that Israel is trying to drive them to all-out war, not only against Israel but against its western allies who have an extraordinary armada.' 

Meanwhile the US and Britain have called for de-escalation in the tinder box region.

'We continue to monitor the situation in Lebanon closely and the UK is working with diplomatic and humanitarian partners in the region,' the foreign office said in a statement.

'The civilian casualties following these explosions are deeply distressing. We urge calm heads and de-escalation at this critical time.' 

What is Hezbollah, the Lebanese group hit by exploding pagers? 

WHAT ARE HEZBOLLAH'S ORIGINS?

Iran's Revolutionary Guards founded Hezbollah in 1982 during Lebanon's 1975-90 civil war, part of Tehran's effort to export its 1979 Islamic Revolution and fight Israeli forces that had invaded Lebanon in 1982. The group has risen from a shadowy faction to a heavily armed force with big sway in Lebanon and the region. Western governments including the United States designate it a terrorist group. So do Sunni Muslim Gulf Arab states including Saudi Arabia.

Hezbollah is a Shi'ite Islamist group and shares the ideology of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

HOW DID HEZBOLLAH GET INVOLVED IN THE GAZA WAR? 

Hezbollah is a powerful part of the 'Axis of Resistance', an alliance of Iran-backed groups across the Middle East that also includes the Palestinian Islamist movement Hamas, which ignited the Gaza war by attacking Israel on Oct. 7. Declaring solidarity with the Palestinians, Hezbollah began firing on Israeli positions in the frontier region on Oct. 8. The sides have been trading fire on a near daily basis since then, with Hezbollah launching rockets and drones and Israel mounting air and artillery strikes. The attacks have mostly struck near or at the frontier, but both sides have also widened their attacks.

Tens of thousands have been uprooted in Lebanon and Israel.

HOW POWERFUL IS HEZBOLLAH'S MILITARY?

While other groups disarmed after Lebanon's civil war, Hezbollah kept its weapons to fight Israeli forces that were occupying the predominantly Shi'ite Muslim south of the country. Years of guerrilla warfare led Israel to withdraw in 2000, but Hezbollah retained its arsenal.

Hezbollah demonstrated military advances in 2006 during a five-week war with Israel, which erupted after it crossed into Israel, kidnapping two soldiers and killing others.

Hezbollah fired thousands of rockets into Israel during the conflict, in which 1,200 people were killed in Lebanon, mostly civilians, and 158 Israelis were killed, most of them soldiers.

Hezbollah's military power grew after 2006. The group says its rockets can strike all parts of Israel and its arsenal includes precision missiles. During the Gaza war, Hezbollah has announced attacks using surface-to-air missiles - a weapon it was long believed to have in its arsenal but had never before confirmed possessing. It has also launched explosive drones at Israel.

Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah has said the group has 100,000 fighters. The U.S. Central Intelligence Agency's World Factbook says Hezbollah was estimated in 2022 to have 45,000 fighters, split between roughly 20,000 full-time and 25,000 reservists.

WHAT REGIONAL SWAY DOES HEZBOLLAH HAVE?

Hezbollah has inspired and supported other Iranian-backed groups across the region, including Iraqi Shi'ite militias. It played a big part in helping its ally President Bashar al-Assad fight the war in Syria, where it still has fighters. Saudi Arabia says Hezbollah has also fought in support of the Iran-allied Houthis in Yemen. Hezbollah denies this.

WHAT IS HEZBOLLAH'S ROLE IN LEBANON?

Hezbollah's influence is underpinned by both its weaponry and the support of many Lebanese Shi'ites who say the group defends Lebanon from Israel. It has ministers in government and lawmakers in parliament.

Lebanese parties opposed to Hezbollah say the group has undermined the state and unilaterally dragged Lebanon into wars.

It entered Lebanese politics in 1992, contesting elections, and began taking a more prominent role in state affairs in 2005 after Syria withdrew forces from Lebanon following the killing of former prime minister Rafik al-Hariri, a Sunni politician who symbolised Saudi influence in Beirut.

A U.N.-backed court convicted three Hezbollah members in absentia over the assassination. Hezbollah denies any role, describing the court as a tool of its enemies.

In 2008, a power struggle between Hezbollah and its Lebanese political foes led to armed conflict, after the government vowed to take action against the group's military communications network. Hezbollah fighters took over parts of Beirut.

In 2018 Hezbollah and allies who support its possession of arms won a parliamentary majority. This was lost in 2022, but the group still has major political sway.

ACCUSED OF ATTACKS ON WESTERN INTERESTS

Lebanese officials and Western intelligence have said groups linked to Hezbollah carried out suicide attacks on Western embassies and targets, and kidnapped Westerners in the 1980s.

The United States holds Hezbollah responsible for suicide bombings in 1983 that destroyed the U.S. Marine headquarters in Beirut, killing 241 servicemen, and a French barracks, killing 58 French paratroopers. It also says Hezbollah was behind a suicide attack on the U.S. embassy in Beirut in 1983.

Referring to those attacks and hostage-taking, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said in a 2022 interview that they were carried out by small groups not linked to Hezbollah.

Hezbollah has also been accused of militant attacks elsewhere. Argentina blames it and Iran for the deadly bombing of a Jewish community centre in Buenos Aires in which 85 people died in 1994 and for an attack on the Israeli embassy in Buenos Aires in 1992 that killed 29 people.

Source: Reuters