Kganyago sees inflation dip creating policy space

The central bank projects consumer price growth to reach 3.6% in the final quarter of this year, with an average rate of 4% expected in 2025.

South African Reserve Bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago said inflation could fall below 4% in coming months, creating more room for action after officials cut interest rates in September.

‘We expect the next two or three prints; that they could have a three handle on them and that provides policy space for us,” Kganyago told South African lawmakers in Cape Town on Thursday. “The headline disinflation is mainly supported by petering global supply shocks.”

The central bank’s forecasts see consumer price growth settling at 3.6% in the last quarter of this year and averaging 4% in 2025.

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Official inflation data showed consumer price growth slowed to 4.4% at an annual rate in August, falling back below the midpoint of the bank’s 3% to 6% target range where it prefers to peg price expectations.

Cooler inflation encouraged policymakers to cut rates by 25 basis point last month to 8%.

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Core inflation, which excludes food and energy costs and slowed to 4.1% in August, suggests that “the disinflation process is now firmly underway,” Kganyago said.

South Africa’s inflation outlook is benefitting from an upswing in business confidence following the formation of a broad governing coalition after elections in May that included centrist parties, boosting the rand and helping to dampen import prices.

“There is now a positive vibe about South Africa,” Kganyago said, adding that the economy probably continued its rebound in the third quarter, after expanding 0.4% the prior three months. “In spite of other emerging-market currencies, the South African rand has been strengthening, that means we have been able to flush out the bulk of the negative news that were actually embedded in South African financial asset prices,” he said.

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